Poker Hand Odds After Flop?

Odds Against Flopping

Hand	Odds	Percent
A flush	118-1	0.8%
A straight when holding any two connecting cards J-10 through 5-4	76-1	1.3%
Three of a kind when holding a pocket pair	7.5-1	11.8%
A pair (matching one of your holecards)	2.45-1	29.0%

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How are odds calculated after flop?

The Four and Two Rule – The “Four and Two” rule, sometimes referred to as the 2/4 rule, is one of the most reliable and easy methods of working out the odds of hitting your desired draw on the turn and river. First, after the dealer has drawn the flop, calculate the number of outs left in the deck.

Then, once you have done this, multiply the number of outs by four to get the percentage chances of you being dealt a winning card on the turn or river. For example, if there are 8 outs, then the percentage of you drawing one is 8×4 – 32%. After the turn, you can multiply the number of outs by two to give you your percentage odds.

So if there are still 8 outs, your odds are 16%. Now that you have the percentage odds, you can work out the ratio odds. This is done by dividing the 100 by the percentage and subtracting 1. For example, 100/32 = around 3, so -1, and you have odds of 2/1.
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What are the odds of hitting the flop?

What Are The Odds of Flopping a Set? – Making three of a kind with paired hole cards and a third matching card hitting the board on the flop is known as, For example, if you hold 8 ♥ 8♣ preflop, and the flop comes A♣ 8 ♦ 5♠, you’ve flopped a set of eights.
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What are odds of hitting flush after flop?

Your chances of making a flush after the flop when on a flush draw are at 34.97%! It’s a great feeling when you’re on a flush draw on the flop, and one third of the times, you’ll make the hand!
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What percentage of flops should you see?

It depends on how many players are at the table,whether it’s a cash game or tournament,and the type of players in the game. But on average,seeing a flop around 15% of the time is grand. But just as important is when you put your money in to see a flop.
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How much should you bet after flop?

After the flop, the usual starting bet is two-thirds the size of the pot (the total that has already been bet). So if the pot stands at $9, you should bet around $6. If you want to re-raise, you should aim for two and a half times the previous player’s bet. So if they bet $6 you should raise to $15.
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What is the 2 4 rule in poker?

The 4-2 Rule as mentioned previously – The 4-2 Rule is a way to turn the number of drawing outs you have into your odds of hitting them. It’s times 4 on the flop to hit on the turn or river, and times 2 on the turn to hit your draw on the river. Example: a flopped flush draw is 9 outs.
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Should you always bet the flop?

Continuation betting has been one of the most popular and misunderstood concepts in Texas Hold’em over the past few years. Today we’re going to look at continuation betting, specifically when you are the preflop raiser and find yourself in position (last to act after the flop).

The most common occurrence of this is when you have opened the action on the button or in the cutoff and one or both of the blinds defend. The four situations we’re going to look at are when we flop a big made hand, when we flop a weak made hand, when we flop a draw, and of course when we flop absolutely nothing.

#1 Flopping a Strong Made Hand – Top Pair with good kicker or better (2 pair, trips, sets) Hooray. This is the most fun situation you’ll run into when playing and is also the most straight forward situation. When you flop a strong made hand, you’re looking to build a pot and begin getting value for your hand.

Simply put, you should be betting here most of the time unless you decide to slow play and trap. In a world of disbelief (where no one ever believes you have a hand), most of the time just betting out your strong hands is the right play. Also, if you are continuation betting a lot when you don’t have a hand (some of the other situations we are going to look at), people that are paying attention are immediately going to think something is fishy when you all of a sudden don’t bet a flop that you normally would.

#2 Flopping a Weak Made Hand – A weak made hand would be bottom or middle pair on most boards. Sometimes a weak made hand will include top pair on a board containing lots of draws. Sometimes it’s smart to check back hands like this. Here are the main situations/ reasons that you might look to do this instead of betting:

b) Having some stronger hands in our flop check range will give us some pairs to call our opponents on the turn. This prevents us from having to fold the turn every time we check the flop. Balancing our range here makes us tougher to play against and takes away the automatic probe bet by the other player every time we check. a) We do not open ourselves up to being check raised with our weak hand. This is a form of pot control and it protects us from getting blown off of our hands at times by wreckless players. If you’re up against a player that check raises a lot or based on your hand you would start crying uncontrollably if you were check raised, this is a good play. c) By showing “weakness” on the flop we can often induce our opponents to bluff into us on the turn and/or river. We can often call these bluffs down with our flopped pairs. This goes hand in hand with the point mentioned above. It allows us to “bluff catch” (catch bluffs) from our opponents. Some people can’t help themselves but bet when you check and this is definitely something we want to occasionally take advantage of.

#3 Flopping Draws Draws are great opportunities for us to continuation bet for several reasons.

a) You have immediate fold equity when betting the flop – your opponent might just give up right there vs your bet and you win the hand. b) If you opponent calls your semi-bluff, you have the chance to complete your draw on the turn & river. Because most opponents who check/call your flop bet will also check again to you on the turn – you have the options of seeing both the turn and river cards after betting the flop. This control of the hand in combination with the equity your flush/straight draw provides – and the chance to make a pair with your draw – makes semi-bluffing a very effective flop play.

#4 Flopping Complete Air Boooo. This is the least enjoyable situation but unfortunately the situation you will find yourself in quite often. In this situation, you need to take a few things into account. The first is your opponent. If you have a tougher opponent or a sticky opponent that does not like to fold, you might be better off checking and giving up here.

If you have a weaker opponent that just plays their hand, you might still take a stab here as they will be folding often. You also will want to take a look at the texture of the board. If the board is very draw heavy that could have hit your opponents range, you should lean towards just giving up. If it’s a fairly dry board that will miss your opponents range a lot, you should lean more towards taking a stab at the pot Another consideration is this: delayed-bluffing can be more profitable versus immediate bluffing,

Yes, our only chance to win this hand is to have our opponent fold to our bet – but who says that bet needs to be on the flop? Looking to delayed turn bet boards where both the flop and turn get checked through can be a nice addition to your win-rate – most opponents don’t bother balancing their turn checking range with enough good hands (they are usually eager to start betting their value hands themselves after you check back the flop.) ( Note: If you want to learn more about our postflop game plan, check out the Postflop Engine ! This mini-postflop training course was developed by top pros Doug Polk and Ryan Fee and is now on sale for just $7! Click the image below to learn more.)
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How often do you ace on flop?

September 30, 2014 “The world is full of kings and queens,” once sang Black Sabbath, “who blind your eyes and steal your dreams.” The song — the title track from their 1980 album Heaven and Hell — might well apply to the situation of being dealt or in no-limit hold’em, hands which can sometimes blind us from playing sound strategy, and steal our dreams, too, especially when a higher card falls on the flop. If you listen to some players, the chance of an higher card hitting the flop when they hold or is 100%. But in truth it does happen fairly frequently — enough that it is definitely worth being prepared for how to proceed when it does. When holding, there’s just over a 22% chance an ace will come on the flop. When holding, there’s a better than 41% chance an ace or a king will flop. But all is not necessarily lost when those higher cards fall.
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What are the odds of AA vs KK?

Calling Pre-Flop All-In with KK or AK In this analysis, I’ll examine when you should call with KK or AK in Texas Hold’em when your opponent shows great strength by making the third raise all-in pre-flop. I’ll only examine cash games, not tournaments, so it’s strictly a math problem.

1. Also keep in mind that your opponent is making the third raise, not just a second raise.
2. So this narrows his possible range of hands down quite a bit.
3. For example, while many players may re-raise with AK, they will be hesitant to put the third raise in with it.
4. First off, obviously the answer depends on two things – what your estimation is of what your opponent holds, and what pot odds you are being offered for your call.

We’ll examine several different scenarios. We’ll begin with the analysis for KK. KK vs. AA First, suppose your opponent accidentally flips over his cards and shows you AA. You fold, right? Not if you’re getting the right pot odds. There are 4 cases:

Case 1: you have the same two suits. Then the AA is a 82.6% favorite, and you should only call if you are getting 4.76 : 1 pot odds or better. Case 2: you share one suit. Then the AA is a 81.9% favorite, and you should only call if you are getting 4.54 : 1 pot odds or better. Case 3: you share no suits. Then the AA is a 81.3% favorite, and you should only call if you are getting 4.33 : 1 pot odds or better. Case 4: you don’t know the suits. Then the AA is a 81.9% favorite, and you should only call if you are getting 4.54 : 1 pot odds or better.

KK vs. AA or KK Let’s say your opponent isn’t so tight and will make the same play with KK. How much does that change your odds?

6 hands: your opponent has AA and you are the underdog 81.9% of the time (81.946031) to be precise 1 hand: your opponent has KK and you are even money (50%)

Your opponent’s weighted winning chances are 77.4%, so you need 3.42 : 1 pot odds to call. KK vs. AA, KK, or AK Let’s take it a step further and say your opponent will also make the play with AK.

6 hands: your opponent has AA and you are the underdog 81.9% of the time (81.946031) to be precise 1 hand: your opponent has KK and you are even money (50%) 8 hands: your opponent has AK and you are 68.9% to win (68.88378174% to be precise)

Your opponent’s weighted winning chances are 52.7%, so you need 1.11 : 1 pot odds to call. So you’ll call almost anything. KK vs. AA, KK, QQ, or AK Again, let’s take it a step further and say your opponent will also make the play with QQ.

6 hands: your opponent has AA and you are the underdog 81.9% of the time (81.946031) to be precise 1 hand: your opponent has KK and you are even money (50%) 8 hands: your opponent has AK and you are 68.9% to win 6 hands: your opponent has QQ and you are 82.4% to win (82.39489016% to be precise)

Your opponent’s weighted winning chances are 42.68%, so of course you call no matter what the pot odds. KK vs. Average opponent Let’s try to do something a little more complicated. Let’s say you don’t know anything about your opponent. You’ll have to treat him as average. What’s average? For the purposes of this analysis, let’s say that:

95% of opponents will re-re-raise all-in with AA (the others will just call) 70% of opponents will re-re-raise all-in with KK 35% of opponents will re-re-raise all-in with AK 20% of opponents will re-re-raise all-in with QQ

For the purposes of this calculation, we’ll ignore other hands. In real life, of course, there are players (albeit few) who will re-re-raise you all-in with hands like 66 or QJs. Hopefully that percentage of players is small enough to make it negligible for this calculation.

6 * 0.95 hands: your opponent has AA and you are the underdog 81.9% of the time (81.946031) to be precise 1 * 0.70 hand: your opponent has KK and you are even money (50%) 8 * 0.35 hands: your opponent has AK and you are 68.9% to win 6 * 0.20 hands: your opponent has QQ and you are 82.4% to win (82.39489016% to be precise)

Your opponent’s weighted winning chances are 58.69%, so you need 1.42 : 1 odds to call. Let’s take an example. With $200 stacks and a $2 big blind, your opponent raises to $6. You re-raise to $20. Your opponent re-re-raises to $200. Then there’s $223 in the pot and you have to call $180.

Opponent	Required pot odds to call with KK
AA	4.54 : 1
AA or KK	3.42 : 1
AA, KK, or AK	1.11 : 1
AA, KK, QQ or AK	always call
“average” oppponent	1.42 : 1

Now let’s analyze what happens when you’re holding AKs. AKs vs. AA AKs will win 12.1% (actually 12.1404844) of the time against AA, so you’ll need 7.24 : 1 odds to call. AKs vs. AA or KK AKs will win 34.1% (actually 34.106385315) of the time against KK. The chances you are against AA is the same as KK, so your weighted odds of winning are 23.12343486%, requiring pot odds of 3.32 : 1.

3 hands: your opponent has AKs and you are even money (50.0%) 6 hands: your opponent has AKo and you are 52.4921392463% to win 3 hands: your opponent has AA and you are 12.1404844% to win 3 hands: your opponent has KK and you are 34.106385315% to win

Your weighted winning chances are 40.2462296415%, so you need 1.48 : 1 pot odds to call. KK vs. AA, KK, QQ, or AK Again, let’s take it a step further and say your opponent will also make the play with QQ.

3 hands: your opponent has AKs and you are even money (50.0%) 6 hands: your opponent has AKo and you are 52.4921392463% to win 3 hands: your opponent has AA and you are 12.1404844% to win 3 hands: your opponent has KK and you are 34.106385315% to win 6 hands: your opponent has QQ and you are 46.04851125% to win

Your weighted winning chances are 41.9040243868%, so you need 1.39 : 1 pot odds to call. AKs vs. Average opponent

3 * 0.95 hands: your opponent has AA 3 * 0.70 hand: your opponent has KK 3 * 0.35 hands: your opponent has AKs 6 * 0.35 hands: your opponent has AKo 6 * 0.20 hands: your opponent has QQ

Your weighted winning chances are 34.8618812493%, so you need 1.87 : 1 pot odds to call. Summary:

Opponent	Required pot odds to call with AKs
AA	7.24 : 1
AA or KK	3.32 : 1
AA, KK, or AK	1.48 : 1
AA, KK, QQ or AK	1.39 : 1
“average” oppponent	1.87 : 1

As you would expect, AKs plays quite a bit weaker than KK, except specifically if you are playing against someone who will always (and only) re-re-raise all-in with AA or KK. In this case, AKs plays a little better, simply because if you have AKs it is equally likely that your opponent has AA or KK; if you have KK, it is much more likely that he has AA.
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How often should you flop a set?

Before We Go Any Further. What Are the Stacks? – Let’s imagine another hand where a player raises from middle position and now you’re on the button with Calling and set mining seems like a good idea, but there’s one other question you need to answer before doing so. What are the stacks? Look at what the raiser has behind as well as what you have, and figure out what the “effective stacks” are in this situation.

Effective stacks” essentially refers to the smallest stack among the players involved in a hand, as that represents the most total chips in play (and at risk for that player). Say in this case the blinds are 1,000/2,000 and the preflop raiser made it 5,000 to go. You have a comfortably big stack of almost 70,000, but after raising the preflop raiser is now down to 20,000.

Is set mining with pocket fours a good strategy here? Think about it. You’ll only flop a set of fours once every eight times. But if you stack this player, you’re only going to win a relatively small pot. You’re calling a bet of 5,000 in the hopes of winning what’s in the middle (8,000) plus another 20,000.

That’s less than six times the amount of your call. Calling here in the hopes of flopping a set is clearly a bad play. It’s about 7-to-1 against flopping a set, and even if things go perfectly for you — that is, you flop a set and stack the guy — you’re risking 5,000 to win 28,000 total. That means your implied pot odds (including what you can potentially win besides what is already in the pot) are 5.6-to-1 — that’s less than the odds against hitting your set.

In this case, it would be better to raise with your pocket fours (or just fold them) than to call, as set mining is not a recommended strategy when the effective stacks are so shallow. One rule of thumb to follow is to say the effective stacks must be at least 10 times the amount of the call to justify trying the set mining strategy.

If you’re going to call a raise of 5,000 here (and try set mining), you need to have the potential to win at least 50,000 chips. Some even recommend the stacks be even deeper, say 12 or 15 times the amount of the call (or even more). Bottom line — don’t try set mining if the stacks aren’t deep enough to justify it.

Before you make that call with your small pair, look at the stacks. If you’re playing online poker, this is as easy as reading the numbers on the screen representing stack amounts. If playing live, take a second, eyeball the raiser’s stack and make a count, and don’t just call the raise if the effective stacks are too small for set mining.
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What are the odds of hitting a gut shot straight?

What is a Gutshot Straight Draw? – A gutshot straight draw is a drawing hand that needs a specific card rank to come to hit a straight. For example, if you hold 9♠ 8♠ and the flop comes J♣ Q ♥ 4 ♦, you have a gutshot straight draw — a ten and a ten only would give you a straight.
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How often do pro poker players fold?

When to Fold Before the Flop – In Texas Hold’em, the best poker players fold 75 percent or more of all starting hands before the betting even begins. A fundamentally sound preflop strategy sets you up for success in all subsequent betting rounds. Even the loosest preflop players (if they’re winning players) fold before the flop around 70 percent of the time.

• To figure out when to fold before the flop, you need to establish a set of hand ranges that you’re willing to play from each position at the poker table.
• Hand range charts (like the Upswing Poker free preflop charts ) represent the best way to establish a solid preflop strategy.
• Preflop hand range charts dictate what hands to open raise with from each position, as well as which hands to call or raise with against a player who has bet before you get to act.

A good starting hand chart will have you doing a lot of folding preflop. A good preflop strategy involves playing tighter in early position, then adding more starting hands to your range in the later positions. Premium hands, like pocket aces, kings, queens, and ace-king, can be open raised from any position.
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What is the best seat at a poker table?

6. Where is the seat relative to the aggressive and tricky players? – Assuming the table as a whole is acceptable, you ideally want the seat to the left of the tricky, loose, and aggressive players. You want the advantage of seeing how they will act before you decide to enter the pot, and before you decide how you will play your hand.
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What percentage of hands do good poker players win?

Final Thoughts – I hope that this article helps some of you guys get a better idea of what a good poker winning percentage is these days in both online poker and live poker. To be honest I get emails about this kind of thing all the time and that is why I decided to write this article and throw a bunch of numbers out there.

Now sure, you can improve your odds of achieving (or even surpassing) these poker winning percentages, by studying a good advanced poker training program. But when you really think about it, focusing heavily these numbers is still pretty silly overall. The reason why is because poker just isn’t a game where you can plan out exactly how much you are going to earn and when you will get it like in a regular job with a fixed salary.

Poker in reality is a never-ending series of ups and downs even if you are a pro. You simply cannot control your short term results. They will always be all over the place. Your long term poker winnings on the other hand is something that you can control.

But even still that will depend heavily on your skill level, work ethic, discipline and emotional control among other things. This is why I always suggest that you simply focus on improving your game and consistently making good decisions at the poker table. If you do this, then the results will come in time.

Lastly, if you want to know how to start consistently making $1000+ per month from low stakes poker, make sure you grab a copy of my free poker cheat sheet. Let me know your thoughts on a good poker winning percentage in the comments below.
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What is the most profitable bet?

In Conclusion – Sports betting can be an extremely profitable activity for both professionals and amateurs – as long as you are willing to spend some time watching the games and learning how to properly analyze them, you should see some improvement in your results over time.
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How much do people usually bet in poker?

Bet Sizing A small bet is generally considered as being equal to half the pot or less, a medium is between half and three quarters, and a big bet is defined as anything above three quarters. A standard pre-flop bet is three times the big blind, but in some cases it can be better to bet more.
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What is the 7 2 rule in poker?

The 7-2 Game A few nights ago I had the chance to play at friend’s home game where we implemented the 7-2 game. For those of your not familiar, this is where anytime a player wins with 7-2, every other player at the table has to give them some amount of money.

1. In our case, we were playing a deep-stacked 1/2 game with six players and when someone won with 7-2, they would get $10 (5 BB) from every other player.25 BB total is not a bad score, especially when you’re able to take it down preflop.
2. Some people hate the game, others love it, and I certainly fall into the later category.

Anything to drum up action and encourage bluffing is a win in my book. At first, it no one was getting dealt 7-2. After at least four orbits the hand was not shown down and everyone said they hadn’t seen the had once. This makes sense though- of the 1326 possible starting hand combos in NLHE, 7-2 comprises only 16 of them, for a little over 1% of total possible hands.

• After about an hour though of no one getting the hand, seemingly all at once, a very high proportion were getting dealt, and this continued for the rest of the night.
• There were at least 4x as many 7-2 combos dealt as what one would expect based on the odds (I certainly wasn’t complaining about that!).

While the game is normally fun, somewhat loose, with a good amount of aggression, the 7-2 game transformed the table to have a preflop aggression frequency higher than the toughest online 6max games. It seemed like there was a 3bet every few hands with no one ever really choosing to back down with 7-2.

1. On top of the standard 3 and 4bet bluffs with 7-2, there were also a few notable pots where 7-2 triple barreled on a scary board and got called down on all three streets and where a player opted to flat with 7-2 preflop and make a series of bluffs postflop to take it down.
2. For the home game that this was played in, I think the 7-2 game makes a lot of sense.

Everyone could afford to play these stakes so although the hyped up aggression left some people frustrated by the end of the night, it wasn’t going to make anyone not come back. The only scenario in which I could see the 7-2 game not making sense for one’s home game is if the stakes being played are meaningful to some, and the thought of losing 3 buyins or more in a friendly game is something that would discourage players from coming back (although in this type of case, my recommendation would be to lower the stakes, up the stack depth, and bring on the preflop aggression!).

• What I’m excited to further explore is not the merits of whether or not to play the 7-2 game sometimes – unless you hate action and people bluffing more, it’s worth at least trying for an hour or two.
• I want to look at how this game effects decisions so if you find yourself in a game where people are playing the 7-2 game, you know how to adjust.

I think it’s fairly obvious for those that have played the 7-2 game, most people over-adjust and bluff too much when holding 7-2. I’m going to look at how the reward of winning a hand wth 7-2 impacts one’s EV and your frequencies. For the sake of simplicity, let’s work with the assumption that the reward for winning with 7-2 is 30 BB – 5 BB at a 7 handed home game.

1. Let’s say you normally open 3 BB to win 1.5 BB.
2. Now with the 7-2 game in play the reward is 31.5 BB.
3. So it’s clear even in early position 7-2 is a slam-dunk open.
4. Now what about a 3bet? Let’s say you standardly 3bet to 10 BB over a 3 BB open.
5. So now instead of risking 10 BB to win 4.5 BB, you’re risking 10 to win 34.5 BB.

At first glance it might seem like we should be 3betting 100% of the time with 7-2. I think in most games this is probably correct, but if you’re in a really loose game where people rarely fold to 3bets, or up against a particularly sticky player, it might be best to just fold against those type of players.

1. Because once called preflop, 7-2 has such poor equity against a calling range so without much fold equity postflop, best to just fold pre.
2. Note in these games I would have a tiny or non-existent 3bet bluffing range without the 7-2 game.
3. Most players will have a frequency that they fold to 3bets, even in a loose, aggressive, and deep stacked game, so most of the time you should replace some of your 3bet bluffs with 7-2.

The key when adjusting for this game is not completely throw off your relative frequencies – if you normally 3bet in late position with 9s+ AQ+ for value and A2s-A5s as a bluff, don’t just add 7-2 to your 3betting range unless these players won’t adjust to the 7-2 game – almost no one doesn’t adjust when playing the 7-2 game, if anything, most players in my experience over-adjust and always “put you on 7-2”.

So against most players you should also add at least the proportionate amount of value combos to keep your ratio of value hands to bluffs the same, if not more value hands due to overadjustment. Now on to 4bet bluffing. If a standard 4bet to a 10 BB 3bet is 35 BB, you’re normally risking 35 BB to win 11.5 BB, and with the 7-2 game to win 41.5 BB.

As you can see, after more preflop betting occurs, you’re starting to risk more to win relatively less. The same logic for when to 3bet bluff with 7-2 applies to 4betting, although because of the price we’re laying ourselves, we need to be a little more conservative than with 3betting.

1. Against a relatively balanced player, we should be 4bet bluffing all combos of 7-2.
2. But against someone who only 3bets very good hands or is looking to gamble with a merged value range, best to fold all combos of 7-2 preflop.
3. I imagine there aren’t many opponents where it is correct to do anything but fold all combos or 4bet all combos.

It would take a particular opponent who is somewhat balanced in their 3betting range but a little too loose to warrant a mixed strategy with 7-2. Postflop Barreling frequencies with 7-2 postflop are largely dependent on the size of the pot after the preflop betting.

In a similar fashion to preflop, it’s likely correct to cbet 100% in a single-raised pot heads up- if our cbet sizing is on average 1/2 pot, then one is risking 3.25 BB to win 37.5 BB. With multiple players in the pot, it still is likely correct to cbet 100% with 7-2 because of the price. Even if the 3.25 BB cbet only gets through 15% of the time in a 4way pot, it’s still a really profitable cbet because you’re risking 3.25 BB to win 43.5 BB (only needs to work about 7.5% of the time to break even).

If you’re at a table where it’s so loose that cbets don’t go through on the flop when playing the 7-2 game because everyone puts you on it, don’t ever bluff postflop with 7-2 and please let me know if you ever need another player for the game. In a 3bet pot, the same logic largely applies.

1. In a heads up pot when cbetting the flop you’re risking 10 BB to win 51.5 BB, so you only need the bet to work 18% of the time as opposed to the normal 33% without the 7-2 bonus.
2. Note how much more of an attractive proposition cbetting is in a single-raised versus heads up pot: cbets only need to work 8.5% of the time versus 18% of the time.

And for 4bet pots this then changes to 26.5% which while is better than the 33% that it would need to work without the 7-2 game, won’t change your range as significantly. In a 4bet pot you should probably give up with some combos of 7-2 and replace your worst normal bluffing candidates with 7-2.

Don’t be the guy that makes the hero triple barrel – on each street the extra 30 BB becomes much less of a factor. If it’s a 3bet pot heads up pot with 200 BB stacks to start the hand, and you get to the river with 100 BB in the pot and 150 BB behind. You decide to overbet the river and risk 150 BB to win 100 + 30 BB because goddamnit if you’ll lose with 7-2.

Normally you would need this bluff to work 60%. But with the extra 30 BB, this bet still needs to work 53.5% of the time, not that significant of a difference. If you decide it makes sense to have an overbetting range on a particular river card, it will likely make sense to include at least a combo or two of 7-2, just not all 12 combos.

• Equity when called + fold equity – bet when called and miss + bounty equity = 0
• Equity is when called = x
• % Opponent folds = y
• 7-2 Bounty = z
• So let’s say I bet 50 into 100 on a flop in a heads up pot.
• So the base equation before knowing our exact hands, equities, and bounty is the following knowing the size of the bet:
• x(1-y)*200 + y*100 – 50*(1-x)(1-y) + z = 0
• The flop is Kc6h9c.
• Which is a better c-bet bluffing candidate, 72o or J10c?

Let’s approximate that 7-2 has about 5% equity against a continuing range and J10c has 35% equity. Your opponent will fold 33%, 8% more than optimal. In the home game I played, the 7-2 bounty was 50.7-2,05(1-.33)*200 +,33*100 – 50*(1-.05)(1-.33) + 50 = 57.875 J10c,35(1-.33)*200 +,33*100 – 50*(1-.35)(1-.33) + 0 = 58.125

1. So in this case, we’d expect to profit about $7 (answer of equation – the bet) with our best bluffing candidate as well as 72o betting half pot in a medium sized pot for the stake, without much theoretical difference between the two hands.
2. Now let’s look at what happens if this flop was bet called and a blank turn comes out.
3. Kc6h9c4s

Which is a better bluffing candidate now for betting 140 into 200? Let’s adjust the base equation for this bet and pot size, how often your opponent folds (33%, a few % less than optimally against this bet size), and updated equities – 0% for 7-2 and 18% for J10c.

x(1-y)*480 + y*200 – 140*(1-x)(1-y) + z = 0 7-2 0(1-.33)*480 +,33*200 – 140*(1-0)(1-.33) + 50 = 117 J10c,18(1-.33)*480 +,33*200 – 140*(1-.18)(1-.33) + 0 = 201.796 As you can see, as the pot gets bigger, 7-2 becomes significantly worse (EV of -$23 in this example) to bluff compared to good draws (one would expect to profit $61 semibluffing J10c here).

Now a note on river play – if you do get to the river with 7-2, then it becomes your best bluff because none of your bluffs have equity but you get the extra bounty with 7-2. This doesn’t necessarily mean that you should always bluff with all combos of 7-2 you get to the river with, but you should defintely bluff all 7-2 combos before adding other bluffs.

Conclusion The big takeaway is to still be quite aggressive with 7-2 – the extra 30 BB in most circumstances makes it an excellent bluffing candidate. This becomes less and less true on later streets, and in bloated pots. Just remember to not get too crazy and have it make your ratio of value bets to bluffs go out of whack – with the addition of 7-2 to a bluffing range, remember to value bet extra thinly.

: The 7-2 Game
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